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SAT passes test of predicting freshman grades
Friday, April 25, 2008

Early studies of the new SAT college entrance exam show it is just about as good as high school grades -- and in some cases better -- at predicting college freshman grades.

The high school class of 2006 was the first to take the new test, which added a writing section, including a 25-minute essay. Given for the first time in March 2005, it also had revised sections for verbal, which was renamed critical reading, and math. Each section is worth 800 points.

In a telephone news conference on another report on teen writing, College Board President Gaston Caperton yesterday said many are finding the writing section is the "best predictor of college success" of all the parts of the SAT.

Wayne Camara, vice president of research for the College Board, later said that the board studied more than 151,000 freshmen at 110 colleges and universities of varying types and sizes throughout the nation in 2006-07. He said it is the largest validity study ever done by the College Board.

While the study is not yet ready for publication, Dr. Camara said it shows a strong correlation between overall SAT scores and freshman grades. The correlation is strongest when all three parts are used, but when each of the three sections is considered singly, writing has the strongest correlation.

At highly selective schools where there is not a lot of difference in the grade point averages of applicants, Dr. Camara said, "the SAT as a whole is a better predictor than high school GPA."

The study "certainly suggests that you would want to use all three tests to get the best prediction," Dr. Camara said. "Institutions that are not considering the SAT writing are really not getting as much value as they could in predicting college success."

He said the tests should be used in combination with grades.

Dr. Camara buttressed his position with another study of 33,356 freshmen done by the University of California, an SAT critic that had pushed the College Board to make the test more achievement-oriented.

In a paper presented to the California Association for Institutional Research in November, University of California officials gave "a first look" at one-year results of their students.

Dr. Camara said the California researchers found the SAT writing section to be "slightly" more predictive of success than the other SAT sections and the full SAT test to be "slightly" more predictive than the high school grade point average.

Colleges and universities initially were reluctant to use the writing test because it didn't have a track record. Some now use it for admissions or placement.

At the University of Pittsburgh, Betsy Porter, director of admissions and financial aid, said Pitt had been waiting for multiple years of data to be available. In its next freshman profile, it will start providing information on the writing scores, just as it does for math and critical reading.

In Pitt admissions, the scores as well as the essays will be used as an "additional tool" in evaluating candidates.

"For our purposes, what we would say is the more information, the better," Dr. Porter said.

Opinions on the SAT vary.

At Chatham University, where SAT scores are optional, Michael Poll, vice president for admissions, said, "We don't believe the SAT is a strong predictor for our students regardless. We have studied our students who have come in SAT-optional. At this point, their persistence is nearly identical to those who came in with the SAT."

At Seton Hill University, Barbara Hinkle, vice president for enrollment services and registrar, said SAT writing scores were among the factors considered for admission. They also were used to place students in a freshman writing class.

While Seton Hill hasn't done any studies yet, she said faculty indicate it seems to be working.

At Robert Morris University, spokesman Jonathan Potts said the SAT writing scores aren't routinely considered, although the scores and the essay can be used in a borderline case. He said math and critical reading scores are a "sufficient tool."

The importance of writing was highlighted at the news conference, which focused on a new report, "Writing, Technology and Teens," a national survey by the Pew Internet & American Life Project and the College Board's National Commission on Writing for America's Families, Schools and Colleges.

Of the 12- to 17-year-olds surveyed, 86 percent said that good writing ability is important to success later in life.

Use of electronic personal communication was common -- 87 percent -- but 60 percent didn't think of those forms of communication as writing.

"There is clearly a big gap in the minds of teenagers between the 'real' writing they do for school and the texts they compose for their friends," said Amanda Lenhart, a senior research specialist at Pew and co-author of the report.

The teens said they'd like to learn to write better, with 82 percent saying their writing would get better if they spent more time in class practicing.

Education writer Eleanor Chute can be reached at echute@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1955.
First published on April 25, 2008 at 12:00 am